BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Barn Owl In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

American Barn Owl in Great Basin has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-31%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Barn Owl in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Barn Owl in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Barn Owl in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.03
20260.010.000.03
20270.010.000.03
20280.010.000.03
20290.010.000.03

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording American Barn Owl in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NubieberCALIFORNIA32012
Blacks CreekIDAHO32006
SnowvilleUTAH22006
MercerWASHINGTON22015
PomeroyWASHINGTON22024
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON22018
LikelyCALIFORNIA12015
DorrisCALIFORNIA12019
MacdoelCALIFORNIA11997
Pasadena ValIDAHO12007
Cedar HillIDAHO12016
GardnervilleNEVADA12000
FallonNEVADA11996
Lone RockOREGON12001
PendletonOREGON11994
AdrianOREGON11987
UmatillaOREGON11996
MikkaloOREGON12014
Harney LakeOREGON12006
MerrillOREGON11995
GoshenUTAH12006
WapatoWASHINGTON11992
WilburWASHINGTON12005
EllensburgWASHINGTON11995
MaldenWASHINGTON12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.