BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-83%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±372.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±372.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±372.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.17
20250.000.000.17
20260.000.000.17
20270.000.000.17
20280.000.000.17

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelmoreFLORIDA21993
MicanopyFLORIDA11986
RomeoFLORIDA11980
St AugustineFLORIDA12023
MabelFLORIDA11988
ScottsmoorFLORIDA12007
Ft MccoyFLORIDA11992
NobletonFLORIDA11988
Island GroveFLORIDA12017
CroomFLORIDA11988
GoetheFLORIDA12021
Babcock RnchFLORIDA11988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.