BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Acadian Flycatcher In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+149%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.7 (95% range 3.8–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.7 (95% range 3.8–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.53.65.4
20274.53.65.4
20284.63.75.5
20294.63.85.5
20304.73.85.6

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PomonkeyMARYLAND492025
Island CreekMARYLAND482025
HughesvilleMARYLAND272025
BrandonVIRGINIA252025
Port RoyalVIRGINIA222025
WalkersVIRGINIA222023
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND192025
La PlataMARYLAND172009
MillingtonMARYLAND162025
TruhartVIRGINIA162024
PomfretMARYLAND152024
Forest GroveMARYLAND142023
NottinghamMARYLAND142025
White StoneVIRGINIA142025
Pt RepublicMARYLAND121989
Milton 2DELAWARE102025
Tall TimbersMARYLAND102014
CokesburyMARYLAND102025
Estell ManorNEW-JERSEY102025
HarringtonDELAWARE92025
St. George'S IslandMARYLAND92017
GloucesterVIRGINIA92025
Furnace TownMARYLAND82025
BerlinMARYLAND82025
PepperboxDELAWARE72016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.