BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Acadian Flycatcher In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Piedmont has surged: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+98%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Piedmont: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Piedmont is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.5–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Piedmont is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.5–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.22.44.1
20273.32.44.1
20283.32.54.1
20293.32.54.2
20303.32.54.2

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EarltonMARYLAND482024
Pw Forest PkVIRGINIA312009
AmherstVIRGINIA192025
IjamsvilleMARYLAND162025
BullockNORTH-CAROLINA152025
ElamsvilleVIRGINIA152016
Ft Pickett SVIRGINIA151995
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA142025
TrymeVIRGINIA122025
WylliesburgVIRGINIA122019
MadonnaMARYLAND102022
DurhamNORTH-CAROLINA102025
HallVIRGINIA102025
BrodnaxVIRGINIA102025
PartlowVIRGINIA92015
MannboroVIRGINIA92025
Mount AiryNORTH-CAROLINA82025
Big IslandVIRGINIA82025
Church RoadVIRGINIA82025
Liberty City 2ALABAMA72025
ForsythGEORGIA72024
EmmitsburgMARYLAND72025
GoldstonNORTH-CAROLINA72022
Uwharrie NfNORTH-CAROLINA72001
WhitmireSOUTH-CAROLINA72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.