BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+157%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
157Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.7 (95% range 3.8–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.7 (95% range 3.8–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.53.65.4
20264.63.75.4
20274.63.75.5
20284.73.85.5
20294.73.85.6

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace LewisTENNESSEE302017
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY242014
SanduskyILLINOIS222023
HoosierINDIANA222024
BremenILLINOIS202024
GeorgiaINDIANA192024
CollinwoodTENNESSEE192024
Indian Mound 2TENNESSEE192023
Cave In RockILLINOIS182024
JoyKENTUCKY162023
Mammoth Cave NorthKENTUCKY162013
WilliamsvillMISSOURI162024
Pond CreekTENNESSEE162024
Trace CollinwoodTENNESSEE162018
YorkILLINOIS132024
Bays ForkKENTUCKY132019
PulaskiILLINOIS122024
CelestineINDIANA122024
CorydonINDIANA122024
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE112017
Clear SpringINDIANA102024
CantonKENTUCKY102024
BrownsvilleKENTUCKY102024
BennettMISSOURI102024
BarksMISSOURI102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.