BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Acadian Flycatcher In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+148%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
157Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.8 (95% range 3.9–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.8 (95% range 3.9–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.63.75.4
20274.63.75.5
20284.73.85.5
20294.73.85.6
20304.83.95.7

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace LewisTENNESSEE302017
HoosierINDIANA272025
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY242014
SanduskyILLINOIS222023
Pond CreekTENNESSEE222025
GeorgiaINDIANA212025
CollinwoodTENNESSEE202025
Indian Mound 2TENNESSEE192023
Cave In RockILLINOIS182024
CorydonINDIANA162025
JoyKENTUCKY162023
Mammoth Cave NorthKENTUCKY162013
Trace CollinwoodTENNESSEE162018
WilliamsvillMISSOURI152025
LincolnMISSOURI152025
PulaskiILLINOIS142025
CelestineINDIANA142025
MorganfieldKENTUCKY142025
Clear SpringINDIANA132025
Bays ForkKENTUCKY132019
BremenILLINOIS122025
CentervilleMISSOURI112025
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE112017
DelwoodILLINOIS102025
YorkILLINOIS102025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.