BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Acadian Flycatcher In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-2%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Acadian Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Acadian Flycatcher In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.000.22
20270.090.000.22
20280.090.000.22
20290.090.000.22
20300.090.000.22

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Peach CreekTEXAS61992
CarlosTEXAS42012
College StnTEXAS21990
Gambill Ref.TEXAS21995
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12025
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA11971
BeggsOKLAHOMA12022
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12007
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12012
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12024
SkiatookOKLAHOMA12014
MuldoonTEXAS11995
Oak GroveTEXAS11984
Massey LakeTEXAS12025
OakwoodTEXAS11995
Glen RoseTEXAS11998
LydiaTEXAS12025
DikeTEXAS12024
SadlerTEXAS11976
Wolfe CityTEXAS11987
Oak Grove 2TEXAS12014
Thornton 2TEXAS12001
Thornton 3TEXAS12025
YoakumTEXAS11994
BurtonTEXAS12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.