BirdAnalyst
Guild · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Shorebirds In Montana

All statesMontana

8 species in this guild. As a group they are +8%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for shorebirds in Montana. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Montana is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.3–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Montana is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.3–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.91.32.5
20261.91.32.5
20271.91.32.5
20281.91.32.5
20291.91.32.5

Member Species In Montana

Shorebirds species in Montana.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
KilldeerCharadriidae-39%
Spotted SandpiperScolopacidae+9%
Wilson's PhalaropeScolopacidae+20%
Wilson's SnipeScolopacidae+32%
American AvocetRecurvirostridae+217%
Long-billed CurlewScolopacidae+407%
Marbled GodwitScolopacidae+445%
WilletScolopacidae+537%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.