BirdAnalyst
Guild · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Shorebirds In Louisiana

All statesLouisiana

3 species in this guild. As a group they are +60%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for shorebirds in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Louisiana is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.2–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Louisiana is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.2–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.81.24.4
20262.81.24.4
20272.81.24.4
20282.81.24.4
20292.81.24.5

Member Species In Louisiana

Shorebirds species in Louisiana.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
WilletScolopacidae-88%
KilldeerCharadriidae+66%
Black-necked StiltRecurvirostridae+264%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.