Guild · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Shorebirds In Arizona

3 species in this guild. As a group they are -61% since 1970.

Guild Signals

guild collapsecomputed index

Shorebirds as a group have fallen sharply in Arizona, down 61% since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Arizona is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2029

0.45Projected 2029 index

0.00–1.295% range

±28.8%Backtest error

Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.

Year	Projected index	95% high
2025	0.48	1.2
2026	0.48	1.2
2027	0.47	1.2
2028	0.46	1.2
2029	0.45	1.2

Member Species In Arizona

Shorebirds species in Arizona.

Spotted Sandpiper	Scolopacidae	-62%
Killdeer	Charadriidae	-25%
Black-necked Stilt	Recurvirostridae	+6%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.