BirdAnalyst
Guild · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Shorebirds In Arizona

All statesArizona

3 species in this guild. As a group they are -61%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Shorebirds as a group have fallen sharply in Arizona, down 61% since 1970.

Shorebirds In Arizona Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Arizona is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.45Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Arizona is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.480.001.2
20260.480.001.2
20270.470.001.2
20280.460.001.2
20290.450.001.2

Member Species In Arizona

Shorebirds species in Arizona.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Spotted SandpiperScolopacidae-62%
KilldeerCharadriidae-25%
Black-necked StiltRecurvirostridae+6%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.