BirdAnalyst
Guild · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Game Birds In Vermont

All statesVermont

3 species in this guild. As a group they are +333%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for game birds in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Game birds in Vermont is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.20–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.67Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Game birds in Vermont is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.20–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.630.161.1
20260.640.171.1
20270.650.181.1
20280.660.191.1
20290.670.201.1

Member Species In Vermont

Game birds species in Vermont.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae-47%
Ruffed GrousePhasianidae-19%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae21×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.