BirdAnalyst
Guild · Iowa · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Game Birds In Iowa

All statesIowa

4 species in this guild. As a group they are -58%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Game birds as a group have fallen sharply in Iowa, down 58% since 1969.

Game Birds In Iowa Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Game birds in Iowa is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Game birds in Iowa is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.60.009.1
20273.40.008.9
20283.20.008.7
20293.00.008.5
20302.80.008.3

Member Species In Iowa

Game birds species in Iowa.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Northern BobwhiteOdontophoridae-58%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae-32%
Gray PartridgePhasianidae+57%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae18×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.