BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Zone-tailed Hawk In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Zone-tailed Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

-39%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Zone-tailed Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Zone-tailed Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 109% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+109%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Zone-tailed Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 109% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.29
20260.120.000.29
20270.120.000.29
20280.120.000.29
20290.120.000.29

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Zone-tailed Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CutterARIZONA22014
AmadoARIZONA21999
PortalARIZONA22023
PrescottARIZONA12003
PomereneARIZONA12011
San SimonARIZONA11976
Peña BlancaARIZONA12021
PatagoniaARIZONA12023
Forest LakesARIZONA12019
Bartlett ResARIZONA12023
AlpineARIZONA11994
RedingtonARIZONA12019
Mt. GrahamARIZONA12014
Carr MtnARIZONA12015
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12024
DragoonARIZONA12008
RuckerARIZONA11997
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12021
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12017
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.