BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Great Basin has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+17%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
204Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Great Basin is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 3.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.9–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Great Basin is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 3.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.9–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.22.95.6
20264.22.95.6
20274.22.95.6
20284.22.95.6
20294.22.95.6

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hardware RanchUTAH802023
HyrumUTAH721979
Magic MtnIDAHO652024
Ruby ValleyNEVADA522001
GiffordIDAHO492017
Meadow VallyNEVADA442024
WaitsburgWASHINGTON362004
Fish LakeOREGON312024
Humboldt Nf 2NEVADA302024
TwispWASHINGTON232024
PendletonOREGON222024
JarbidgeNEVADA212015
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON212024
NighthawkWASHINGTON202024
Iron GateCALIFORNIA182019
JoelIDAHO182024
Humboldt NfNEVADA182019
ArdenvoirWASHINGTON171987
LeavenworthWASHINGTON172024
IndexWASHINGTON161971
LynnUTAH152023
Modoc PointOREGON142018
L. WenatcheeWASHINGTON142024
MazamaWASHINGTON132022
HenryIDAHO121983

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.