BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-50%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
139Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Yellow Warbler In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.1–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.1–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.01.15.0
20273.01.15.0
20283.01.14.9
20293.01.14.9
20303.01.14.9

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Copper RiverALASKA882011
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA632019
Thompson PasALASKA502025
HyderALASKA432009
McchordWASHINGTON302015
Stikine RiverALASKA262024
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA202017
Alpenglow (Short)ALASKA172012
LongvaleCALIFORNIA152023
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON142025
HainesALASKA122025
Moose PassALASKA91992
MccloudCALIFORNIA92021
CougarWASHINGTON92023
Bay ViewWASHINGTON92017
Mendota 3WASHINGTON92025
South ElmaWASHINGTON82024
SewardALASKA71992
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON72024
HopeALASKA62025
Harlan 2OREGON62025
Port AngelesWASHINGTON62025
Warm BeachWASHINGTON62017
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA52025
SalemOREGON52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.