BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-48%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.1 (95% range 1.1–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.1 (95% range 1.1–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.11.25.0
20263.11.25.0
20273.11.25.0
20283.11.15.0
20293.11.15.0

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Copper RiverALASKA882011
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA632019
Thompson PasALASKA492024
HyderALASKA432009
McchordWASHINGTON302015
Stikine RiverALASKA262024
HopeALASKA252024
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON252024
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA202017
HainesALASKA192024
Alpenglow (Short)ALASKA172012
LongvaleCALIFORNIA152023
Moose PassALASKA91992
MccloudCALIFORNIA92021
CougarWASHINGTON92023
Bay ViewWASHINGTON92017
AdairOREGON82024
South ElmaWASHINGTON82024
SewardALASKA71992
JuneauALASKA72024
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON72024
Mendota 3WASHINGTON72024
Warm BeachWASHINGTON62017
MolallaOREGON52024
Sheep MtnALASKA42017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.