BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1994.

13×Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1994.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.42–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.81Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.42–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.730.341.1
20260.750.361.1
20270.770.381.2
20280.790.401.2
20290.810.421.2

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red RockNEW-MEXICO152024
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO22023
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO22024
GageNEW-MEXICO11974
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO12019
PinonNEW-MEXICO12014
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO12023
Casa PiedraTEXAS11992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.