BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+141%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow Warbler In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.64–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.64–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.64–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.602.2
20271.40.612.2
20281.40.622.2
20291.40.632.2
20301.40.642.2

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CutterARIZONA202014
PomereneARIZONA102025
ReserveNEW-MEXICO72025
PatagoniaARIZONA52025
Skull ValleyARIZONA42024
Carr MtnARIZONA42025
PrescottARIZONA32025
RedingtonARIZONA32025
SprucedaleARIZONA32025
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA32025
BlueARIZONA21989
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA22025
PinetopARIZONA21993
Aztec PeakARIZONA11975
San SimonARIZONA11984
SunizonaARIZONA11997
WilliamsARIZONA12025
Bartlett ResARIZONA12025
AmadoARIZONA12025
SahuaritaARIZONA12024
McnealARIZONA12024
PortalARIZONA12025
DragoonARIZONA11996
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.