BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 135% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+135%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 135% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.60–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.60–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.562.2
20261.40.572.2
20271.40.582.2
20281.40.592.2
20291.40.602.2

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CutterARIZONA202014
PomereneARIZONA122024
PatagoniaARIZONA92024
Carr MtnARIZONA52024
ReserveNEW-MEXICO52023
Skull ValleyARIZONA42024
RedingtonARIZONA32023
BlueARIZONA21989
PinetopARIZONA21993
Bartlett ResARIZONA22024
PrescottARIZONA12022
Aztec PeakARIZONA11975
San SimonARIZONA11984
SunizonaARIZONA11997
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA12010
AmadoARIZONA12023
SahuaritaARIZONA12024
McnealARIZONA12024
SprucedaleARIZONA12022
PortalARIZONA12022
DragoonARIZONA11996
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.