BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 3 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In BCR 3

All regionsBCR 3Forest birds

Yellow Warbler in BCR 3 has surged: up 155% on the route-weighted index since 1999.

+155%Since 1999TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in BCR 3: up 155% on the route-weighted index since 1999.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in BCR 3 is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.1–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in BCR 3 is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.1–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19972029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.00.835.1
20263.10.905.2
20273.10.975.3
20283.21.05.4
20293.31.15.4

Routes In BCR 3

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in BCR 3.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy ValleyALASKA42024
Red DogALASKA32024
Dietrich CmpALASKA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.