BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-89%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±203.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±203.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±203.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.06
20260.010.000.06
20270.010.000.06
20280.010.000.06
20290.010.000.06

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NewvilleVIRGINIA72005
DeepstepGEORGIA61989
TazewellGEORGIA31984
Big OakGEORGIA32012
Green SwampNORTH-CAROLINA32006
WrightsvilleGEORGIA21987
ShilohKENTUCKY22009
Trace NorthMISSISSIPPI22011
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA21997
Dismal SwampNORTH-CAROLINA22002
St FlorianALABAMA11980
LibertyALABAMA12001
HarrellALABAMA11987
BillingsleyALABAMA11981
Warrior StdALABAMA11969
LathamALABAMA11984
FoleyALABAMA11972
JenaALABAMA11994
CarrolltonALABAMA12016
AutaugavilleALABAMA11997
Everett CityGEORGIA11976
LyonsGEORGIA11966
HendersonGEORGIA11995
LacrossGEORGIA11983
JacksonboroGEORGIA11987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.