BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-25%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.18
20260.070.000.18
20270.070.000.18
20280.070.000.18
20290.060.000.18

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI32021
AugustaARKANSAS21967
WilsonARKANSAS22023
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI22009
HughesARKANSAS12022
MaynardARKANSAS12009
LafeARKANSAS12017
EnglandARKANSAS12013
UlmARKANSAS12023
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS12024
BardwellKENTUCKY11999
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY12021
MoonMISSISSIPPI12011
DeventerMISSOURI12009
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI12019
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE11995
PawpawTENNESSEE11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.