BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Central Hardwoods has fallen sharply: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-75%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has fallen sharply in Central Hardwoods: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.000.49
20260.190.000.47
20270.180.000.46
20280.170.000.45
20290.160.000.44

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BirdsILLINOIS52024
Indian SpgsINDIANA52024
Clear SpringINDIANA52023
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE52019
AvocaARKANSAS31977
Levee 2KENTUCKY32019
Lebanon JunctionKENTUCKY32007
SyracuseMISSOURI32016
CraneMISSOURI32009
LurtonARKANSAS21981
AzaliaINDIANA22002
CumbackINDIANA22017
MillersburgINDIANA22014
VevayINDIANA22023
NewberryINDIANA22024
CyprssINDIANA22024
HoosierINDIANA21991
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY22018
DemunbrunsKENTUCKY21995
DrakesboroKENTUCKY21985
Buena VistaKENTUCKY22016
East UnionKENTUCKY22018
PleasurevillKENTUCKY22024
WilliamsvillMISSOURI22010
BennettMISSOURI22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.