BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+107%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 9.6–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.6–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 9.6–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025119.213
2026119.313
2027119.413
2028119.513
2029119.613

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AshbyMINNESOTA502021
CumberlandWISCONSIN362024
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA332024
LapeerMICHIGAN302024
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN282024
DresserWISCONSIN272024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN262024
KnappMINNESOTA252024
GrimmsWISCONSIN252021
EdwardsMINNESOTA242024
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN242023
RichmondMICHIGAN222024
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA222024
PrattvilleMICHIGAN212021
Brook ParkMINNESOTA212024
BismarkOHIO211995
GilmantonWISCONSIN212024
ViroquaWISCONSIN212024
MatherWISCONSIN202023
OmroWISCONSIN202001
AlmenaMICHIGAN192015
LawrenceMICHIGAN182024
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN182024
TyreMICHIGAN181996
GlenwoodMINNESOTA182019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.