BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Forest birds

Yellow Warbler in BCR 2 has held roughly steady: down 0% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-0%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 7.2–55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.2–5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 7.2–55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025317.255
2026317.255
2027317.255
2028317.255
2029317.255

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TupuknukALASKA1601995
DillinghamALASKA872019
Kodiak 2ALASKA672024
Selawik (Short)ALASKA671987
ChiniakALASKA622024
KodiakALASKA581984
Kugarak (Short)ALASKA321987
St. Mary'SALASKA312014
Gweek RiverALASKA282002
Salmon LakeALASKA242024
CouncilALASKA212024
NomeALASKA212023
Cold BayALASKA192024
KotzebueALASKA182024
Cape NomeALASKA102024
TellerALASKA102024
Goodnews BayALASKA82005
King SalmonALASKA62024
Kanektok RivALASKA42005
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA41994
Katmai N.P.ALASKA32019
Togiak RiverALASKA22005
Dillingham (Short)ALASKA21984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.