BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 710% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+710%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 710% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.6–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.6–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.53.0
20262.31.53.1
20272.31.53.1
20282.41.63.2
20292.41.63.2

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChambersNEBRASKA402023
SumnerNEBRASKA242024
AlmeriaNEBRASKA232021
BradyNEBRASKA202024
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA192024
KearneyNEBRASKA172024
NenzelNEBRASKA172024
JohnstownNEBRASKA132024
BrownleeNEBRASKA122024
BerwynNEBRASKA122010
BoelusNEBRASKA122022
BelvidereNEBRASKA112024
BartleyNEBRASKA112024
SargentNEBRASKA92024
LeovilleKANSAS82018
SurpriseNEBRASKA82024
KennedyNEBRASKA82024
BassettNEBRASKA82024
PetersburgNEBRASKA72023
Swan LakeNEBRASKA72023
JewellKANSAS61985
Beloit 2KANSAS52018
KenesawNEBRASKA52024
SusankKANSAS42015
TableNEBRASKA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.