BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 823% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+823%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 823% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow Warbler In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.7–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.7–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.41.53.2
20272.41.63.3
20282.51.63.3
20292.51.73.4
20302.61.73.4

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChambersNEBRASKA362025
SumnerNEBRASKA272025
AlmeriaNEBRASKA232021
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA232025
NenzelNEBRASKA162025
BrownleeNEBRASKA132025
Berwyn 2NEBRASKA132025
BerwynNEBRASKA122010
BoelusNEBRASKA122022
BradyNEBRASKA112025
JohnstownNEBRASKA102025
LeovilleKANSAS82018
KearneyNEBRASKA82025
BartleyNEBRASKA82025
KennedyNEBRASKA82025
BassettNEBRASKA82025
PhillipsburgKANSAS72025
Swan LakeNEBRASKA72025
JewellKANSAS61985
SargentNEBRASKA62025
HendleyNEBRASKA62025
Beloit 2KANSAS52018
HamptonNEBRASKA52025
SolomonKANSAS42025
SusankKANSAS42015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.