BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 139% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+139%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 139% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 4.9–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 4.9–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.54.68.4
20266.64.78.5
20276.64.88.5
20286.74.88.6
20296.84.98.7

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrandenbergMONTANA352019
Reed PointMONTANA312024
DaytonWYOMING312024
ForsythMONTANA272023
BillWYOMING251999
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA222015
Moskee 2WYOMING202021
Chuffey SpringMONTANA192024
HighwoodMONTANA172024
Moskee 3WYOMING152024
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA142019
MayoworthWYOMING142024
SavageMONTANA132021
CusterMONTANA122022
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA122019
GlenrockWYOMING121977
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA112024
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA112023
FlatwillowMONTANA102008
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA102024
SundanceWYOMING102024
Two DotMONTANA92024
LindsayMONTANA92024
Miles CityMONTANA92024
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA92024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.