BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+142%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow Warbler In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 4.8–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.8–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 4.8–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.54.68.4
20276.54.68.4
20286.64.78.5
20296.74.78.6
20306.74.88.6

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reed PointMONTANA622025
HighwoodMONTANA302025
ForsythMONTANA272023
BrandenbergMONTANA272025
BillWYOMING251999
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA222015
DaytonWYOMING222025
Moskee 2WYOMING202021
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA162025
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA142019
SundanceWYOMING142025
DwyerWYOMING142025
MayoworthWYOMING142024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA132025
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA132025
CusterMONTANA122022
Miles CityMONTANA122025
Custer 2MONTANA122025
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA122019
WyarnoWYOMING122025
GlenrockWYOMING121977
FlatwillowMONTANA102008
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA102024
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA102025
SavageMONTANA92025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.