BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+82%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
182Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow Warbler In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.4 (95% range 1.7–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.4 (95% range 1.7–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.41.79.1
20275.41.79.1
20285.41.79.1
20295.41.79.1
20305.41.79.1

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH502025
YampaCOLORADO452023
AspenCOLORADO412025
ParlinCOLORADO412025
CastletonCOLORADO412025
HannaUTAH372024
Rifle FallsCOLORADO352025
HatchUTAH332025
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO312025
Uintah NfUTAH291994
KamasUTAH272025
Lost Cr. ResUTAH272018
Animas 2COLORADO222025
Stillwater PassCOLORADO212009
Heeney 2COLORADO212025
MoabUTAH182025
TarryallCOLORADO172025
Fox CreekCOLORADO172025
Steamboat L.COLORADO162025
Main CanyonUTAH162025
Sybille CynWYOMING162025
Douglas PassCOLORADO152024
Hill CreekUTAH151995
DoylevilleCOLORADO142025
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO142025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.