BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+70%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
181Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has risen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 1.6–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 1.6–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.41.69.1
20265.41.69.1
20275.41.69.1
20285.41.69.1
20295.41.69.1

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YampaCOLORADO452023
CastletonCOLORADO452024
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH432023
AspenCOLORADO402024
HannaUTAH372024
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO302019
Uintah NfUTAH291994
Lost Cr. ResUTAH272018
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO262024
HatchUTAH262024
Stillwater PassCOLORADO212009
KamasUTAH202024
Alton 2UTAH192024
BufordCOLORADO182024
Animas 2COLORADO172021
JensenUTAH172024
Fox ParkWYOMING162024
Douglas PassCOLORADO152024
Cheesman LkCOLORADO152024
ParlinCOLORADO152023
De BequeCOLORADO152024
Hill CreekUTAH151995
Blackhead PkCOLORADO142021
Moon PassCOLORADO142024
AnethUTAH142024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.