BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Sierra Nevada has increased: up 37% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+37%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.10–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.10–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.50.254.7
20262.50.214.7
20272.40.184.7
20282.40.144.6
20292.40.104.6

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeneseeCALIFORNIA292024
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA132024
PaxtonCALIFORNIA112024
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA101994
ChilcootCALIFORNIA92024
Silver CityCALIFORNIA82001
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA72023
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA52011
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA42014
ChesterCALIFORNIA42016
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA42024
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA42019
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA31989
WestvilleCALIFORNIA32024
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA32023
LumberyardCALIFORNIA32024
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA32016
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA32024
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA32024
DownievilleCALIFORNIA32024
RivertonCALIFORNIA32023
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA21985
SattleyCALIFORNIA22019
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12011
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA11974

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.