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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+7%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
150Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Yellow Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.50–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.50–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.50–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.70.716.7
20273.60.666.6
20283.60.606.6
20293.50.556.5
20303.50.506.5

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WashburnMAINE402005
St DavidMAINE402005
Ft FairfieldMAINE302005
BentonMAINE241980
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS242025
HermonMAINE232021
WarrenMAINE191990
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS192025
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE192025
East TroyMAINE182021
PetersburgNEW-YORK182018
S WallingfrdVERMONT182022
CornvilleMAINE162025
FletcherVERMONT162025
New HartfordCONNECTICUT141987
StratfordNEW-HAMPSHIRE142025
ManchesterMAINE131995
BrooksMAINE132021
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS131994
W RutlandVERMONT122025
StoweVERMONT122024
NewcastleMAINE112024
JeffersonMAINE102010
HighmarketNEW-YORK102025
HarmonyMAINE92025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.