BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
149Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.41–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.41–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.60.626.6
20263.60.576.6
20273.50.526.5
20283.50.466.5
20293.40.416.4

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WashburnMAINE402005
St DavidMAINE402005
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS332024
Ft FairfieldMAINE302005
BentonMAINE241980
FletcherVERMONT242024
WarrenMAINE191990
HermonMAINE182019
PetersburgNEW-YORK182018
S WallingfrdVERMONT182022
W RutlandVERMONT172024
East TroyMAINE152019
Turner 2MAINE152024
CornvilleMAINE152024
New HartfordCONNECTICUT141987
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS142024
ManchesterMAINE131995
CharlestonMAINE132019
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS132024
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS131994
DegrasseNEW-YORK132024
StoweVERMONT122024
NewcastleMAINE112024
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE112024
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE112024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.