BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+11%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 9.0–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.0–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 9.0–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025179.224
2026179.124
2027179.124
2028179.124
2029179.024

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NashvilleNEW-YORK492018
WatertownNEW-YORK462012
N VictoryNEW-YORK461972
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA462023
OgdensburgNEW-YORK422024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK372024
PulaskiNEW-YORK312024
BranchportNEW-YORK292024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK252024
CastileNEW-YORK232024
RandolphNEW-YORK222018
GarrettsvileOHIO221991
DuanesburgNEW-YORK212024
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK212024
PenfieldNEW-YORK212024
NaplesNEW-YORK212024
CayugaNEW-YORK202024
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK202024
North EastonNEW-YORK202024
E YoungstownNEW-YORK192023
ArgyleNEW-YORK192024
West BangorNEW-YORK191999
TrumansburgNEW-YORK182024
Canadice LNEW-YORK182024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK182024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.