BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has edged up: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+25%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Yellow Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 17 (95% range 9.2–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.2–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 17 (95% range 9.2–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026179.324
2027179.324
2028179.224
2029179.224
2030179.224

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK512025
NashvilleNEW-YORK492018
MacdougallNEW-YORK472025
WatertownNEW-YORK462012
N VictoryNEW-YORK461972
CastileNEW-YORK422025
SheridanNEW-YORK382025
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK382025
OgdensburgNEW-YORK362025
BranchportNEW-YORK292024
PulaskiNEW-YORK292025
OrleansNEW-YORK282025
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK272025
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK272025
NaplesNEW-YORK252025
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA252025
CayugaNEW-YORK242025
North PownalVERMONT242025
DuanesburgNEW-YORK222025
RandolphNEW-YORK222018
GarrettsvileOHIO221991
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK212025
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA202025
PenfieldNEW-YORK192025
ArgyleNEW-YORK192024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.