BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+9%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Yellow Warbler In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.8–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.8–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.93.76.0
20274.93.76.0
20284.93.86.0
20294.93.86.0
20304.93.86.0

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GilmanWISCONSIN472025
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA442023
BashawWISCONSIN282025
PickfordMICHIGAN262025
BackusMINNESOTA262025
BrainerdMINNESOTA252024
GreenbushMINNESOTA242025
LudeMINNESOTA202025
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN202025
Mille LacsMINNESOTA162024
ExelandWISCONSIN162025
WaskishMINNESOTA142025
MahtowaMINNESOTA142023
PhillipsWISCONSIN132025
IrmaWISCONSIN132025
MinongWISCONSIN122025
HerronMICHIGAN112016
FloodwoodMINNESOTA102025
BenaMINNESOTA101977
ChaffeyWISCONSIN102025
CathroMICHIGAN92016
FlambeauWISCONSIN92025
NebishMINNESOTA82025
CouderayWISCONSIN82025
Maple GroveMICHIGAN72025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.