BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.8 (95% range 3.7–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.8 (95% range 3.7–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.83.75.9
20264.83.75.9
20274.83.75.9
20284.83.75.9
20294.83.75.9

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA442023
GilmanWISCONSIN432024
BrainerdMINNESOTA252024
ExelandWISCONSIN242024
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN242024
WaskishMINNESOTA202024
LudeMINNESOTA192023
Mille LacsMINNESOTA162024
BackusMINNESOTA162024
GreenbushMINNESOTA162024
PickfordMICHIGAN152024
DebsMINNESOTA152024
MahtowaMINNESOTA142023
Pine RiverMINNESOTA122024
HerronMICHIGAN112016
BenaMINNESOTA101977
CouderayWISCONSIN102019
CathroMICHIGAN92016
FloodwoodMINNESOTA92024
NebishMINNESOTA92023
BashawWISCONSIN92024
McgregorMINNESOTA82024
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN71996
Tamarac NwrMINNESOTA72024
IrmaWISCONSIN72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.