BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Northern Rockies has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+19%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
206Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 6.1–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.1–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 6.1–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.06.112
20269.06.112
20279.06.112
20289.06.112
20298.96.112

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WilsonWYOMING822024
ChallisIDAHO552024
ChestnutMONTANA532024
CascadeIDAHO431984
CabartonIDAHO432023
Clyde ParkMONTANA422024
WoodruffUTAH412024
LogdellOREGON392024
Hells CanyonOREGON352022
AlpineWYOMING342024
BridgeportOREGON322022
MeeteetseWYOMING312024
NewbridgeOREGON302024
Red RockMONTANA292024
NinemileMONTANA292024
Fish CreekMONTANA282024
EllistonMONTANA272024
CentervilleIDAHO262019
Donelly 2OREGON262024
Soda LakeWYOMING262024
ClintonMONTANA252024
Freeman CreekMONTANA242016
Muddy CreekMONTANA232015
Hebgen LakeMONTANA232024
Fort LoganMONTANA232024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.