BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-eyed Junco In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Yellow-eyed Junco in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+136%Since 1976
7Routes In Region
43Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Yellow-eyed Junco has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-eyed Junco in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 616% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.11–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±347.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+616%Change by 2029
4.8Projected 2029 index
0.11–9.495% range
±347.3%Backtest error
19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20254.50.009.2
20264.60.009.3
20274.70.009.3
20284.70.049.4
20294.80.119.4

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Yellow-eyed Junco in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Mt. GrahamARIZONA352023
PortalARIZONA122024
SunizonaARIZONA41979
RuckerARIZONA42009
Carr MtnARIZONA22014
Aztec PeakARIZONA11974
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.