BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-crowned Night Heron In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 313% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+313%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-crowned Night Heron has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 313% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.23–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.23–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.172.9
20261.50.192.9
20271.50.202.9
20281.60.212.9
20291.60.232.9

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CreoleLOUISIANA121980
ChinquapinTEXAS102023
Forked IslandLOUISIANA92024
EstherLOUISIANA82024
StowellTEXAS82023
JuniorLOUISIANA71991
MauriceLOUISIANA72024
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA42017
WinnieTEXAS42023
Port AcresTEXAS42024
LafitteLOUISIANA31991
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA32014
WoodlawnLOUISIANA32021
Hinkles FerTEXAS32023
IndianolaTEXAS32006
KaplanLOUISIANA22023
Grand IsleLOUISIANA22014
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA22024
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA22011
KatyTEXAS22024
McfaddinTEXAS22015
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA11976
HackberryLOUISIANA12002
GlencoeLOUISIANA12018
RichardLOUISIANA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.