BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-crowned Night Heron In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
148Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.14
20260.040.000.13
20270.040.000.13
20280.040.000.13
20290.030.000.13

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KellerGEORGIA151993
NeelyMISSISSIPPI91974
GrangeburgALABAMA52024
MoscowTENNESSEE51987
HumboldtTENNESSEE51986
HowardALABAMA41990
Alabama PtALABAMA41995
CovingtonFLORIDA41986
PineoraGEORGIA42018
CockrumMISSISSIPPI41970
CallahanFLORIDA32005
FowlstownGEORGIA31988
CouncilGEORGIA32023
LovelacevileKENTUCKY32001
WhitehallALABAMA22019
Bon SecourALABAMA22003
HeliconALABAMA22015
Gainestown FerryALABAMA22015
Seminole HlsFLORIDA21993
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA21995
BettsFLORIDA22019
Cross CityFLORIDA22000
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA22019
FitzgeraldGEORGIA21994
HawkinsvilleGEORGIA21982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.