BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-crowned Night Heron In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasWetland birds

Yellow-crowned Night Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-crowned Night Heron has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.32
20260.070.000.31
20270.060.000.31
20280.060.000.30
20290.050.000.30

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Yellow-crowned Night Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neches BithTEXAS62017
Mer RougeLOUISIANA41985
HavanaARKANSAS32017
WomackLOUISIANA32024
Derry 2LOUISIANA32022
CaledoniaTEXAS31985
PoyenARKANSAS22004
FishvilleLOUISIANA22011
CypressLOUISIANA21981
ClayLOUISIANA22001
ZwolleLOUISIANA22005
OakdaleLOUISIANA21991
NatchezLOUISIANA22024
Ivan 2LOUISIANA22015
GoodwillLOUISIANA22024
Town BluffTEXAS22009
AthensTEXAS21995
Old MiloARKANSAS11991
RamseyARKANSAS11995
Locust BayouARKANSAS12016
StampsARKANSAS12015
HopeARKANSAS12008
AshdownARKANSAS12018
CrowsARKANSAS11985
BlakelyARKANSAS11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.