BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-crowned Night Heron In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsWetland birds

Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Central Hardwoods has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-50%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.07
20260.010.000.07
20270.010.000.07
20280.010.000.07
20290.010.000.07

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelknapILLINOIS51981
PulaskiILLINOIS32011
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA22009
Peace ValleyMISSOURI21996
CollinwoodTENNESSEE21975
HillsboroALABAMA11978
SwaimALABAMA11979
Wheeler DamALABAMA12019
BirdsILLINOIS11981
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS11986
CumbackINDIANA12004
CorydonINDIANA11980
MillionKENTUCKY11979
GatewoodKENTUCKY11974
DrakesboroKENTUCKY11988
Daniel BooneKENTUCKY11981
DixieKENTUCKY11983
JoyKENTUCKY11998
MorganfieldKENTUCKY12024
PinevilleMISSOURI12014
CraneMISSOURI12003
GranitevilleMISSOURI12005
BaronOKLAHOMA12003
Belotes BendTENNESSEE12001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.