BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-billed Cuckoo In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-87%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-billed Cuckoo has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.93
20260.000.000.93
20270.000.000.93
20280.000.000.93
20290.000.000.93

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Myakka HeadFLORIDA62000
GardnerFLORIDA61999
BelmoreFLORIDA42024
AlturasFLORIDA41986
BrowardFLORIDA41973
TamiamiFLORIDA41974
Ft MccoyFLORIDA42023
Lake BuffumFLORIDA42016
Sunniland GrFLORIDA32021
Mt. OliveFLORIDA32024
CorbettFLORIDA32022
Babcock RnchFLORIDA31989
ChildsFLORIDA22003
PinecrestFLORIDA22024
SalvistaFLORIDA21979
AndytownFLORIDA21998
DeanvilleFLORIDA22012
Pennywash CrFLORIDA22024
SandyFLORIDA22015
PalmdaleFLORIDA22008
Island GroveFLORIDA22024
Mabel 2FLORIDA22018
Sugarloaf Key 2FLORIDA22007
WebbFLORIDA22006
Wildernes PkFLORIDA22014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.