BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-billed Cuckoo In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-84%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-billed Cuckoo has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-billed Cuckoo In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 97% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-97%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 97% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.25
20260.020.000.25
20270.010.000.24
20280.010.000.24
20290.000.000.23

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LamarCOLORADO61985
Wildhorse LCOLORADO52012
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO42001
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO21997
GrigstonKANSAS22017
PaxtonNEBRASKA22011
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO22016
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA22024
HookerOKLAHOMA22017
CircleTEXAS21977
PinneoCOLORADO11988
AbarrCOLORADO11998
Two ButtesCOLORADO11982
Gordon CreekCOLORADO11998
TrincheraCOLORADO11996
NeegrandeCOLORADO12023
NinaviewCOLORADO12001
Fort MorganCOLORADO12013
LakinKANSAS11997
WallaceKANSAS11977
PlymellKANSAS12024
WinonaKANSAS12010
DaltonNEBRASKA11995
AgateNEBRASKA11985
BenkelmanNEBRASKA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.