BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-billed Cuckoo In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-83%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-billed Cuckoo has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-billed Cuckoo In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.020.000.25
20270.010.000.24
20280.010.000.24
20290.000.000.23
20300.000.000.23

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LamarCOLORADO61985
Wildhorse LCOLORADO52012
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO42001
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO21997
GrigstonKANSAS22017
PaxtonNEBRASKA22011
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA22024
CircleTEXAS21977
PinneoCOLORADO11988
AbarrCOLORADO11998
Two ButtesCOLORADO11982
Gordon CreekCOLORADO11998
TrincheraCOLORADO11996
NeegrandeCOLORADO12023
NinaviewCOLORADO12001
Fort MorganCOLORADO12013
LakinKANSAS11997
WallaceKANSAS11977
PlymellKANSAS12024
WinonaKANSAS12010
DaltonNEBRASKA12025
AgateNEBRASKA11985
BenkelmanNEBRASKA12022
CrawfordNEBRASKA12005
FarleyNEW-MEXICO11980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.