BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-billed Cuckoo In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-34%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Yellow-billed Cuckoo In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 256% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.04–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+256%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 256% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.04–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.440.030.86
20270.450.030.86
20280.450.040.86
20290.450.040.87
20300.460.040.87

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
W ShokanNEW-YORK72018
Slippery RkPENNSYLVANIA41991
RushvilleNEW-YORK32021
BranchportNEW-YORK32023
MendonNEW-YORK32018
OneidaNEW-YORK32009
ClintonNEW-YORK31972
RhinebeckNEW-YORK22024
DuanesburgNEW-YORK22015
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK22019
RomulusNEW-YORK21992
OrleansNEW-YORK22016
RandolphNEW-YORK22013
NashvilleNEW-YORK22018
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK22022
ByronNEW-YORK22021
WatertownNEW-YORK22008
PulaskiNEW-YORK22021
SalemNEW-YORK22022
ParishvilleNEW-YORK22006
Harris HillNEW-YORK22009
LattasburgOHIO22025
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA22021
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA22025
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.