BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-billed Cuckoo In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+21%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.08–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+93%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.08–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.060.87
20260.470.070.88
20270.470.070.88
20280.480.070.89
20290.480.080.89

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
W ShokanNEW-YORK72018
BranchportNEW-YORK52023
Slippery RkPENNSYLVANIA41991
AusterlitzNEW-YORK32024
RushvilleNEW-YORK32021
MendonNEW-YORK32018
OneidaNEW-YORK32009
ClintonNEW-YORK31972
RhinebeckNEW-YORK22024
DuanesburgNEW-YORK22015
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK22019
RomulusNEW-YORK21992
OrleansNEW-YORK22016
RandolphNEW-YORK22013
NashvilleNEW-YORK22018
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK22022
ByronNEW-YORK22021
WatertownNEW-YORK22008
PulaskiNEW-YORK22021
SalemNEW-YORK22022
ParishvilleNEW-YORK22006
Harris HillNEW-YORK22009
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA22021
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA22018
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.