BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Aerial insectivores

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in BCR 4 has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1996.

18×Since 1996
14Routes In Region
28Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher has surged in BCR 4: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.83 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.48–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029
0.71Projected 2029 index
0.48–0.9395% range
±38.4%Backtest error
19942029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.620.400.85
20260.640.420.87
20270.670.440.89
20280.690.460.91
20290.710.480.93

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in BCR 4.
Mt. FairplayALASKA172024
ChickenALASKA72024
EagleALASKA42024
Chatanika RALASKA42023
Birch LakeALASKA22019
MonahanALASKA22010
Kanuti CanynALASKA22024
LivengoodALASKA12021
SlanaALASKA12017
Tower BluffsALASKA12022
NorthwayALASKA12019
SourdoughALASKA11995
Kanuti LakeALASKA12013
Nabesna RoadALASKA12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.