BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestAerial insectivores

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-81%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 120% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+120%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 120% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.000.57
20260.220.000.57
20270.220.000.57
20280.210.000.57
20290.210.000.57

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pillsbury PdMAINE461968
YankeetuladiMAINE52009
Big Twenty 2MAINE52009
Wilson MillsMAINE42024
South ArmMAINE31988
NorthfieldMAINE31981
Horse MtnMAINE31997
Weeks BrookMAINE32016
NesowadnehunMAINE32021
Clayton Lake 2MAINE32011
Heron LakeMAINE32003
Horseshoe L.NEW-YORK32016
Moose RiverMAINE21990
Carrying PlMAINE22023
GreenvilleMAINE22005
Forest StaMAINE22000
Clayton LakeMAINE22008
Big TwentyMAINE22008
TelosMAINE21995
Baker LakeMAINE22009
Northfield 2MAINE22022
StacyvilleMAINE22023
AndoverMAINE22021
StratfordNEW-HAMPSHIRE21972
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.