BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

13×Since 1968
76Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 118% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.83–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+118%Change by 2029
1.2Projected 2029 index
0.83–1.695% range
±24.9%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.10.761.5
20261.10.781.5
20271.20.801.5
20281.20.811.5
20291.20.831.6

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
JordanMINNESOTA152023
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA132022
FloodwoodMINNESOTA82024
WaskishMINNESOTA81994
CromwellMINNESOTA62024
ChisholmMINNESOTA62024
HovlandMINNESOTA52023
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA52024
Eagle RiverWISCONSIN52023
AmbergWISCONSIN52023
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN42023
Mille LacsMINNESOTA42010
Hart LakeMINNESOTA42024
GilchristMICHIGAN31990
Betchler LksMICHIGAN32023
BlackduckMINNESOTA32019
Ned LakeMICHIGAN22024
MuskallongeMICHIGAN22015
Pine RiverMICHIGAN21993
LockportMINNESOTA22023
Crane LakeMINNESOTA22024
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA22024
ShanagoldenWISCONSIN22021
ConoverWISCONSIN22022
BerglandMICHIGAN11982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.