BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

13×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 118% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.83–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+118%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.83–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 118% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.83–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.761.5
20261.10.781.5
20271.20.801.5
20281.20.811.5
20291.20.831.6

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JordanMINNESOTA152023
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA132022
FloodwoodMINNESOTA82024
WaskishMINNESOTA81994
CromwellMINNESOTA62024
ChisholmMINNESOTA62024
HovlandMINNESOTA52023
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA52024
Eagle RiverWISCONSIN52023
AmbergWISCONSIN52023
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN42023
Mille LacsMINNESOTA42010
Hart LakeMINNESOTA42024
GilchristMICHIGAN31990
Betchler LksMICHIGAN32023
BlackduckMINNESOTA32019
Ned LakeMICHIGAN22024
MuskallongeMICHIGAN22015
Pine RiverMICHIGAN21993
LockportMINNESOTA22023
Crane LakeMINNESOTA22024
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA22024
ShanagoldenWISCONSIN22021
ConoverWISCONSIN22022
BerglandMICHIGAN11982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.