BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Worm-eating Warbler In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Worm-eating Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 775% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+775%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
115Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Worm-eating Warbler has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 775% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Worm-eating Warbler In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Worm-eating Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 111% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.16–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+111%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Worm-eating Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 111% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.16–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.140.50
20260.320.150.50
20270.330.150.51
20280.330.150.51
20290.340.160.52

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Worm-eating Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA81982
HoltALABAMA42024
Trace SouthMISSISSIPPI42019
Holly SpringsMISSISSIPPI42023
Grenada LakeMISSISSIPPI42019
Vicksburg NpMISSISSIPPI42016
MerrimonNORTH-CAROLINA42019
BeatriceALABAMA32005
NorwoodLOUISIANA32024
Trace CentralMISSISSIPPI32022
Trace HindsMISSISSIPPI32021
NewportNORTH-CAROLINA32022
Dismal SwampVIRGINIA32016
LindenALABAMA22023
MillryALABAMA21992
EpesALABAMA22024
EscatawpaALABAMA22016
Grove HillALABAMA22023
VinaALABAMA22023
GastonburgALABAMA22002
ColumbiaMISSISSIPPI21990
CorinthMISSISSIPPI22024
Leaf RiverMISSISSIPPI22008
EmbryMISSISSIPPI22024
Trace MadisonMISSISSIPPI22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.