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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Worm-eating Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Worm-eating Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-27%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Worm-eating Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Worm-eating Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Worm-eating Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.06–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Worm-eating Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.06–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.060.48
20260.270.060.49
20270.270.060.49
20280.270.060.49
20290.270.060.49

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Worm-eating Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New WaverlyTEXAS62006
EnterpriseLOUISIANA52024
RamseyARKANSAS41997
ChathamLOUISIANA41971
Magazine MtnARKANSAS32021
Four LakesARKANSAS32001
HargisLOUISIANA32010
CrossroadsTEXAS32012
BlakelyARKANSAS21997
EastonLOUISIANA21981
Mount UnionLOUISIANA22024
Fort JessupLOUISIANA22021
LinvilleLOUISIANA22024
IvanLOUISIANA22013
GoodwillLOUISIANA22024
BethelOKLAHOMA22006
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA22023
Big Sandy BithTEXAS22023
Old MiloARKANSAS11991
StampsARKANSAS11997
HopeARKANSAS11987
AshdownARKANSAS12001
CrowsARKANSAS11983
PoyenARKANSAS12003
HollywoodARKANSAS12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.