BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Worm-eating Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Worm-eating Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: up 0% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+0%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Worm-eating Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Worm-eating Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Worm-eating Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Worm-eating Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.040.000.08
20210.040.000.08
20220.040.000.08
20230.040.000.08
20240.040.000.08

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Worm-eating Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RhinebeckNEW-YORK22015
W ShokanNEW-YORK22019
HighlandNEW-YORK11994
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11998
CatskillsNEW-YORK12010
LenoxOHIO12010
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.