BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Great Basin has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-51%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay has fallen sharply in Great Basin: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Great Basin is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±161.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±161.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Great Basin is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±161.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.190.000.43
20270.190.000.43
20280.190.000.43
20290.190.000.43
20300.200.000.43

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MinervaNEVADA1092015
Dobbin CreekNEVADA402011
Ruby ValleyNEVADA41999
Gold HillUTAH42025
Majors PlaceNEVADA32005
WillisNEVADA32025
VernonUTAH32025
NewcastleUTAH32025
CortezNEVADA22022
JarbidgeNEVADA22006
NixonNEVADA22018
Gardnerville 2NEVADA22024
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA22016
Comins LakeNEVADA22016
AustinNEVADA22015
Meadow VallyNEVADA22025
BerylUTAH22025
LeamingtonUTAH21997
Jericho JunctionUTAH22024
Big PineCALIFORNIA12023
BentonCALIFORNIA12022
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA12022
AlmoIDAHO12019
Daniels ResIDAHO11990
RanchograndeNEVADA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.