BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Great Basin has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-31%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Great Basin is projected to rise about 205% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+205%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±165%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Great Basin is projected to rise about 205% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.000.43
20260.190.000.43
20270.190.000.43
20280.190.000.43
20290.200.000.44

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MinervaNEVADA1092015
Dobbin CreekNEVADA402011
NewcastleUTAH222022
Ruby ValleyNEVADA41999
Majors PlaceNEVADA32005
Comins LakeNEVADA32014
CortezNEVADA22022
JarbidgeNEVADA22006
NixonNEVADA22018
Gardnerville 2NEVADA22024
AustinNEVADA22015
Meadow VallyNEVADA22016
Gold HillUTAH22024
LeamingtonUTAH21997
Jericho JunctionUTAH22024
Big PineCALIFORNIA12023
BentonCALIFORNIA12022
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA12022
AlmoIDAHO12019
Daniels ResIDAHO11990
RanchograndeNEVADA12021
Fish CreekNEVADA12014
Walker CanNEVADA12022
MizpahNEVADA12019
IllipahNEVADA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.