BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-71%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.58 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.58 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.001.9
20260.630.001.8
20270.610.001.8
20280.590.001.8
20290.580.001.8

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO91979
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO62024
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO52017
PinonNEW-MEXICO52024
ValentineTEXAS51987
Bear MtnTEXAS42024
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO32002
OzonaTEXAS32022
Ft. StocktonTEXAS32008
Red RockNEW-MEXICO22022
QueenNEW-MEXICO22021
LongfellowTEXAS22019
Devils R CynTEXAS22024
ToyahvaleTEXAS21999
Salt FlatTEXAS22013
GageNEW-MEXICO12002
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12010
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO11982
AltudaTEXAS11985
Ft. DavisTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.