BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 618% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+618%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 618% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.7 (95% range 0.81–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.81–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.7 (95% range 0.81–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.70.806.6
20263.70.816.6
20273.70.816.6
20283.70.816.6
20293.70.816.6

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull ValleyARIZONA302024
PinetopARIZONA122022
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO112024
RuckerARIZONA92000
SunizonaARIZONA81997
Bartlett ResARIZONA72024
PrescottARIZONA52022
Aztec PeakARIZONA51978
BlueARIZONA41991
Forest LakesARIZONA42024
RedingtonARIZONA42023
PortalARIZONA42024
DragoonARIZONA42009
Carr MtnARIZONA32024
ReserveNEW-MEXICO32023
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO32024
Mormon LakeARIZONA21975
McnealARIZONA21997
Happy JackARIZONA21989
Clay SpringARIZONA22024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA22024
San SimonARIZONA11983
Peña BlancaARIZONA12023
PatagoniaARIZONA12011
WilliamsARIZONA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.