BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 548% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+548%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 548% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.7 (95% range 0.82–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.82–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.7 (95% range 0.82–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.70.816.6
20273.70.816.6
20283.70.826.6
20293.70.826.6
20303.70.826.6

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull ValleyARIZONA302024
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA182025
Forest LakesARIZONA122025
PinetopARIZONA122022
PortalARIZONA102025
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO102025
RuckerARIZONA92000
SunizonaARIZONA81997
ReserveNEW-MEXICO82025
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO82025
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA72025
Aztec PeakARIZONA51978
BlueARIZONA41991
Bartlett ResARIZONA42025
DragoonARIZONA42009
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO42025
PrescottARIZONA32025
RedingtonARIZONA32025
Mormon LakeARIZONA21975
McnealARIZONA21997
Happy JackARIZONA21989
Clay SpringARIZONA22025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA22024
San SimonARIZONA11983
Peña BlancaARIZONA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.