BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-78%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
168Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay has collapsed in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.840.003.2
20270.810.003.1
20280.780.003.1
20290.750.003.1
20300.720.003.1

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BonanzaUTAH422013
WalsenburgCOLORADO192025
Moon LakeUTAH161994
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO142022
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO142000
PecosNEW-MEXICO132017
Cortez 2COLORADO102017
AnimasCOLORADO92004
BoulderUTAH92025
ZeniffARIZONA81984
FalfaCOLORADO82025
Mesaverde NpCOLORADO82025
Horse SpgsNEW-MEXICO82025
McgaffeyNEW-MEXICO82025
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO82025
Black MesaARIZONA71992
DeltaCOLORADO72021
Stinking Lk.NEW-MEXICO71999
Castle DaleUTAH72017
Cow SpringsARIZONA62022
PaoniaCOLORADO62025
LudlowCOLORADO62025
Animas 2COLORADO62025
Wellington 3UTAH62025
Mt TrumbullARIZONA51979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.