BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Stork In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Wood Stork in Gulf Coastal Prairie has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-92%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Stork has collapsed in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Stork in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 50× by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 0.00–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5139.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

50×Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5139.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Stork in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 50× by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 0.00–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5139.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.00.0033
20267.00.0033
20277.10.0033
20287.10.0033
20297.20.0033

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Wood Stork in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KaplanLOUISIANA4802010
EstherLOUISIANA3782014
MauriceLOUISIANA402019
StowellTEXAS392019
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA251970
LafitteLOUISIANA111978
WoodlawnLOUISIANA92021
IndianolaTEXAS82003
Hinkles FerTEXAS72014
San PedroTEXAS62001
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS62019
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA42010
DanburyTEXAS42022
RichardLOUISIANA32016
Forked IslandLOUISIANA32024
Lag AtascosaTEXAS32022
Bayside 2TEXAS31997
BaysideTEXAS22002
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS22012
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA12013
Rock IslandTEXAS12015
Oyster LakeTEXAS12001
Port AcresTEXAS12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.