BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Stork In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Wood Stork in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Stork has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Stork in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 270% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±219.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+270%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±219.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Stork in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 270% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±219.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.003.7
20261.40.003.7
20271.40.003.7
20281.40.003.7
20291.40.003.7

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Wood Stork in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dale MabryFLORIDA491988
SandyFLORIDA422015
TamiamiFLORIDA151970
DeanvilleFLORIDA122019
Devils GardnFLORIDA112022
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA102011
Shawano 2FLORIDA82011
ChassahowitzFLORIDA82015
St LucieFLORIDA72018
CroomFLORIDA62013
CorbettFLORIDA62024
Babcock RnchFLORIDA61989
PinecrestFLORIDA42021
IndiantownFLORIDA42014
Ft MccoyFLORIDA42018
ArbuckleFLORIDA42019
GoetheFLORIDA42016
WebbFLORIDA42024
St AugustineFLORIDA32023
Winter GardnFLORIDA32019
ShawanoFLORIDA32001
PalmdaleFLORIDA32016
Island GroveFLORIDA32009
Myakka HeadFLORIDA22011
BelmoreFLORIDA22003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.